social.noyu.me

the idea of opening a prediction market on my own life is ridiculous. so of course, i did it https://manifold.markets/h2a06f/in-what-country-will-hikarinoyume-l

i don't want to bias the outcome but there is a reason i left the poll options open. how well do you think you know me. do you think you can lure me elsewhere

there is alpha in uhhh insider trading

for balance i should also do a market for some further-off date like end of 2026 or something, 12-ish months is a short time horizon, but i didn't yet

ok i made one for 2026 also: https://manifold.markets/h2a06f/in-what-country-will-hikarinoyume-l-a4ab6ea0dcdd

this might be the more interesting market because of such exciting possibilities as “hikari moves to xyz and decides it sucks and goes somewhere else instead”. you never know