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interesting analysis: the xz attacker might live in eastern europe https://rheaeve.substack.com/p/xz-backdoor-times-damned-times-and
i don't particularly enjoy speculation about national origins. obviously the attacker will attempt misdirection, and we don't know in which direction the misdirection goes!
@hikari would have been my first guess. Then I read the username and thought «well of course China is also a possibility». But then it could have been a false flag etc. so many options!